The world's first full-scale floating wind farm has started to take shape off the north-east coast of Scotland. The revolutionary technology will allow wind power to be harvested in waters too deep for the current conventional bottom-standing turbines. The Peterhead wind farm, known as Hywind, is a trial which will bring power to 20,000 homes.
So far, one giant turbine has already been moved into place, while four more wait in readiness in a Norwegian fjord. By the end of the month they'll all have been towed to 15 miles (25km) off Peterhead, Aberdeenshire, where they'll float upright like giant fishing floats. While the turbines are currently very expensive to make, Statoil believes that in the future it will be able to dramatically reduce costs in the same way that manufacturers already have for conventional offshore turbines. "I think eventually we will see floating wind farms compete without subsidy - but to do that we need to get building at scale," said Mr Delp.
The tower, including the blades, stretches to 175m (575ft), dwarfing Big Ben. Each tower weighs 11,500 tonnes. The box behind the blades - the nacelle - could hold two double-decker buses. Each blade is 75m - almost the wing span of an Airbus. The turbines can operate in water up to a kilometre deep.
The price of energy from bottom-standing offshore wind farms has plummeted 32% since 2012 - far faster that anyone predicted. The price is now four years ahead of the government's expected target, and another big price drop is expected, taking offshore wind to a much lower price than new nuclear power.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40699979
Monday, 24 July 2017
Sunday, 23 July 2017
Psychology has more intelligence measurements than just IQ
Certainly worth reading.
If you think about the last time that you used the word “intelligent” to describe someone, you probably meant to say that the person knows a great deal of information and makes well-reasoned decisions. This everyday use of the term intelligence is somewhat at odds with how intelligence is actually measured. For the purpose of this paper, we are operationalizing intelligence as standardized assessments of intelligence that yield IQ scores.
Consider, for example, the test structure for the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS-IV). It includes vocabulary questions, visuospatial puzzles to solve, digits to recall in order both forward and backward, and a visual search for symbols (Wechsler, 1939). These subtests measure important components of intelligence, but individually or collectively, they do not capture the everyday meaning of intelligence, which includes making well-reasoned decisions, supporting conclusions with evidence, thinking in an unbiased manner, avoiding common well-documented biases in thinking such as not considering regression to the mean, weighting evidence that conforms to an existing belief more heavily than evidence that does not, and being misled by the way information is framed.
In one study, Stanovich and West (2008) tested the hypothesis that more intelligent people would be more likely to avoid “my-side bias” (the preference for conclusions and evidence that supports their world view) and more likely to prefer information that provided a balanced perspective on a controversial issue than less intelligent people. Contrary to expectations, they found that IQ measures did not predict thinking on these two types of reasoning tasks. More intelligent people were not more likely to avoid common cognitive biases or prefer balanced arguments than less intelligent people. Thus, intelligence does not appear to predict whether a person will use good reasoning or exercise good judgement.
The terms “critical thinking” and “wisdom” are labels given for the type of thinking that encompasses the skills that characterize good thinking. Grossmann, Na, Varnum, Kitayama, and Nisbett... cite many large scale
studies that have failed to find a relationship between IQ and well-being and articulate the belief that this failure was due to the fact that “standardized intelligence tests do not do a good job of capturing people’s ability to think about social relations or real-world decision-making”... they found that wise
reasoning predicted well-being, a marginally predicted longevity (assessed with death records for the older participants five years later), and better social relations; whereas, cognitive ability as measured with intelligence tests did not.
In this paper, we use the term “critical thinking” as our label for good or clear thinking. Critical thinking involves thinking rationally in a goal-oriented fashion... It is a collection of skills and strategies that a thinker can use when the situation calls for them. It is also a disposition towards thinking careful and thoughtfully. Sometimes critical thinking can be confused with pessimism and cynicism, but the word “critical” is to be used in a more positive way. To be a critical thinker means that you are an amiable skeptic who is willing to invest effort into your thinking process and that you are a flexible thinker.
I dunno, I think I prefer "wisdom". Wisdom is knowing which methods to use in order to form the correct conclusion; knowing when to apply the appropriate methods of critical thinking. Being critical and skeptical is important, but it's also open to abuse without wisdom. Interjection by Plato (Republic, 539b-d) :
I don’t suppose that it has escaped your notice that, when young people get their first taste of arguments, they misuse it by treating it as a kind of game of contradiction. They imitate those who’ve refuted them by refuting others themselves, and, like puppies, they enjoy dragging and tearing those around them with their arguments. Then, when they’ve refuted many and been refuted by them in turn, they forcefully and quickly fall into disbelieving what they believed before. And, as a result, they themselves and the whole of philosophy are discredited in the eyes of others. But an older person won’t want to take part in such madness. He’ll imitate someone who is willing to engage in discussion in order to look for the truth, rather than someone who plays at contradiction for sport.
And now to resume the current paper :
We examined the independent and combined effects of intelligence as assessed with IQ scores and critical thinking as assessed with scores on a popular critical thinking assessment (HCTA). We expected to replicate earlier research showing that IQ can modestly predict some life events, but also
expected to find that critical thinking is a better predictor of these events than IQ scores and that it would add significantly to predictive power when used in conjunction with IQ scores.
They do this by recruiting volunteers and asking them to complete forms designed to measure (separately) intelligence and critical thinking skills.
Our results support both of these hypotheses—critical thinking ability had a greater association with real life decisions, and it added significantly to explained variance, beyond what was accounted for by intelligence alone. These results leave us cautiously optimistic about the assessment of critical thinking ability and the validity of critical thinking scores to predict what people actually do (or say they do) in real life.
Although the methodology of this study (a correlational design) does not allow us to make casual statements (e.g., improving our critical thinking skills will prevent us from making bad decisions) or rule out alternative explanations of these results (e.g., critical thinkers are more selective about reporting certain life outcomes), we are optimistic that improving critical thinking and intelligence will have a positive impact on our everyday lives... Regardless of the cause for the rise in IQ scores, researchers agree that positive outcomes are associated with it.
There is considerable agreement that critical thinking skills can be enhanced, especially with specific instructional strategies designed for that purpose. The results of Huber and Kunkel’s metaanalysis indicated that both critical thinking skills and the disposition to use those skills improves substantially over a normal college experience. This is consistent with a growing body of literature from all parts of the world and at all grade-levels that indicates critical thinking skills can be enhanced. Interestingly, no specific program or courses in the meta-analysis were identified as having increased critical thinking skills. This is perhaps not surprising given that good thinkers need to employ an inventory of critical thinking skills that cut across disciplines, and also need disciplinary knowledge to use them effectively.
We are making a strong plea for more instruction in and attention to critical thinking skills. We can imagine a world where many more people think critically. Around the world, people are called upon to vote on a wide range of critical issues. The irrational (uncritical) voter is a threat to all of us, as are irrational politicians, business executives, and scientists. We believe that we can create a better future by enhancing critical thinking skills of citizens around the world. This optimism is tempered with the reality that so far, we only have data showing that individuals make fewer negative decisions in their personal lives when they are better thinkers, and can only imagine the impact of a world-wide increase in better thinking. We have nothing to lose by trying.
I dunno, years of arguing with pseudoscientists (as well as those who merely possess a few pseudoscientific beliefs) has convinced me that Plato had a point : critical thinking is not the same as wisdom. Undoubtedly there's a correlation, but being able to be critical does not mean that one actually is critical, or is genuinely interested in an unbiased search for the truth. Can you teach this sort of wisdom ? Buggered if I know. Perhaps curiosity is a better approach.
https://news.yale.edu/2017/01/26/antidote-partisanship-science-curiosity-seems-work
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1871187116300384
If you think about the last time that you used the word “intelligent” to describe someone, you probably meant to say that the person knows a great deal of information and makes well-reasoned decisions. This everyday use of the term intelligence is somewhat at odds with how intelligence is actually measured. For the purpose of this paper, we are operationalizing intelligence as standardized assessments of intelligence that yield IQ scores.
Consider, for example, the test structure for the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS-IV). It includes vocabulary questions, visuospatial puzzles to solve, digits to recall in order both forward and backward, and a visual search for symbols (Wechsler, 1939). These subtests measure important components of intelligence, but individually or collectively, they do not capture the everyday meaning of intelligence, which includes making well-reasoned decisions, supporting conclusions with evidence, thinking in an unbiased manner, avoiding common well-documented biases in thinking such as not considering regression to the mean, weighting evidence that conforms to an existing belief more heavily than evidence that does not, and being misled by the way information is framed.
In one study, Stanovich and West (2008) tested the hypothesis that more intelligent people would be more likely to avoid “my-side bias” (the preference for conclusions and evidence that supports their world view) and more likely to prefer information that provided a balanced perspective on a controversial issue than less intelligent people. Contrary to expectations, they found that IQ measures did not predict thinking on these two types of reasoning tasks. More intelligent people were not more likely to avoid common cognitive biases or prefer balanced arguments than less intelligent people. Thus, intelligence does not appear to predict whether a person will use good reasoning or exercise good judgement.
The terms “critical thinking” and “wisdom” are labels given for the type of thinking that encompasses the skills that characterize good thinking. Grossmann, Na, Varnum, Kitayama, and Nisbett... cite many large scale
studies that have failed to find a relationship between IQ and well-being and articulate the belief that this failure was due to the fact that “standardized intelligence tests do not do a good job of capturing people’s ability to think about social relations or real-world decision-making”... they found that wise
reasoning predicted well-being, a marginally predicted longevity (assessed with death records for the older participants five years later), and better social relations; whereas, cognitive ability as measured with intelligence tests did not.
In this paper, we use the term “critical thinking” as our label for good or clear thinking. Critical thinking involves thinking rationally in a goal-oriented fashion... It is a collection of skills and strategies that a thinker can use when the situation calls for them. It is also a disposition towards thinking careful and thoughtfully. Sometimes critical thinking can be confused with pessimism and cynicism, but the word “critical” is to be used in a more positive way. To be a critical thinker means that you are an amiable skeptic who is willing to invest effort into your thinking process and that you are a flexible thinker.
I dunno, I think I prefer "wisdom". Wisdom is knowing which methods to use in order to form the correct conclusion; knowing when to apply the appropriate methods of critical thinking. Being critical and skeptical is important, but it's also open to abuse without wisdom. Interjection by Plato (Republic, 539b-d) :
I don’t suppose that it has escaped your notice that, when young people get their first taste of arguments, they misuse it by treating it as a kind of game of contradiction. They imitate those who’ve refuted them by refuting others themselves, and, like puppies, they enjoy dragging and tearing those around them with their arguments. Then, when they’ve refuted many and been refuted by them in turn, they forcefully and quickly fall into disbelieving what they believed before. And, as a result, they themselves and the whole of philosophy are discredited in the eyes of others. But an older person won’t want to take part in such madness. He’ll imitate someone who is willing to engage in discussion in order to look for the truth, rather than someone who plays at contradiction for sport.
And now to resume the current paper :
We examined the independent and combined effects of intelligence as assessed with IQ scores and critical thinking as assessed with scores on a popular critical thinking assessment (HCTA). We expected to replicate earlier research showing that IQ can modestly predict some life events, but also
expected to find that critical thinking is a better predictor of these events than IQ scores and that it would add significantly to predictive power when used in conjunction with IQ scores.
They do this by recruiting volunteers and asking them to complete forms designed to measure (separately) intelligence and critical thinking skills.
Our results support both of these hypotheses—critical thinking ability had a greater association with real life decisions, and it added significantly to explained variance, beyond what was accounted for by intelligence alone. These results leave us cautiously optimistic about the assessment of critical thinking ability and the validity of critical thinking scores to predict what people actually do (or say they do) in real life.
Although the methodology of this study (a correlational design) does not allow us to make casual statements (e.g., improving our critical thinking skills will prevent us from making bad decisions) or rule out alternative explanations of these results (e.g., critical thinkers are more selective about reporting certain life outcomes), we are optimistic that improving critical thinking and intelligence will have a positive impact on our everyday lives... Regardless of the cause for the rise in IQ scores, researchers agree that positive outcomes are associated with it.
There is considerable agreement that critical thinking skills can be enhanced, especially with specific instructional strategies designed for that purpose. The results of Huber and Kunkel’s metaanalysis indicated that both critical thinking skills and the disposition to use those skills improves substantially over a normal college experience. This is consistent with a growing body of literature from all parts of the world and at all grade-levels that indicates critical thinking skills can be enhanced. Interestingly, no specific program or courses in the meta-analysis were identified as having increased critical thinking skills. This is perhaps not surprising given that good thinkers need to employ an inventory of critical thinking skills that cut across disciplines, and also need disciplinary knowledge to use them effectively.
We are making a strong plea for more instruction in and attention to critical thinking skills. We can imagine a world where many more people think critically. Around the world, people are called upon to vote on a wide range of critical issues. The irrational (uncritical) voter is a threat to all of us, as are irrational politicians, business executives, and scientists. We believe that we can create a better future by enhancing critical thinking skills of citizens around the world. This optimism is tempered with the reality that so far, we only have data showing that individuals make fewer negative decisions in their personal lives when they are better thinkers, and can only imagine the impact of a world-wide increase in better thinking. We have nothing to lose by trying.
I dunno, years of arguing with pseudoscientists (as well as those who merely possess a few pseudoscientific beliefs) has convinced me that Plato had a point : critical thinking is not the same as wisdom. Undoubtedly there's a correlation, but being able to be critical does not mean that one actually is critical, or is genuinely interested in an unbiased search for the truth. Can you teach this sort of wisdom ? Buggered if I know. Perhaps curiosity is a better approach.
https://news.yale.edu/2017/01/26/antidote-partisanship-science-curiosity-seems-work
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1871187116300384
Elephant seals have names
Warning : the sounds are disappointingly inoffensive.
Male elephant seals recognise the rhythm of one another's voices, researchers say.
Or in other words, they have names for each other, as do dolphins.
http://www.bbc.com/news/av/science-environment-40688601/the-rather-rude-sounds-of-an-elephant-seal
Male elephant seals recognise the rhythm of one another's voices, researchers say.
Or in other words, they have names for each other, as do dolphins.
http://www.bbc.com/news/av/science-environment-40688601/the-rather-rude-sounds-of-an-elephant-seal
Saturday, 22 July 2017
Plato understood the toleration paradox well before Popper
I disagree on what constitutes, "moderate" [Plato had some pretty extreme ideas about this], but I agree with the principle.
Friday, 21 July 2017
We need a clean slate, literally - if nothing else we can hit people with it
You couldn't make this stuff up if you tried.
Mr Spicer stepped down because he was unhappy with President Donald Drumpf's appointment of a new communications director, according to reports. Mr Spicer's press briefings were a cable news hit, but he withdrew from camera in recent weeks. He told US media that the White House "could benefit from a clean slate".
Yeah, literally replace everyone in that building with a clean piece of actual slate and the state of world affairs would significantly improve overnight.
Spicer's low points :
inflating crowd sizes at Drumpf inauguration at first briefing
his appearance, particularly his suits, reportedly criticised by Drumpf
saying Hitler never used chemical weapons and referring to Holocaust "centres"
butt of text message joke by adviser Steve Bannon about his weight
defending Drumpf "covfefe" tweet by saying it had hidden meaning
frozen out of meeting with the Pope in Rome, despite being devout Catholic
not invited to Paris for Drumpf visit
His proclivity for gaffes and garbling of his words, as well as making debatable assertions, soon made Mr Spicer a household name. Mr Spicer was roundly mocked after he reportedly hid by a hedgerow on the White House grounds to avoid reporters on the night Mr Drumpf fired the FBI director in May.
But wait, who's this I see coming along to replace him ?
Combative Wall Street financier Anthony Scaramucci has been picked for the role that Mr Spicer partially filled. The New York Times reports that 45-year-old Mr Spicer "vehemently" disagreed with the appointment of Mr Scaramucci, which he believed to be a "major mistake".
In an August 2015 interview with Fox Business, he dismissed Mr Drumpf as a "hack" and "an inherited money dude" with "a big mouth". Mr Scaramucci also apologised and said he had been "unexperienced" as he explained his previous criticism of the president.
"I love the president and it's an honour to be here," Mr Scaramucci said, adding: "He is genuinely a wonderful human being." He also said: "The president has really good karma." Mr Scaramucci, who has no previous experience in communications roles, paid tribute to Mr Spicer as "a true American patriot" and "incredibly gracious".
Truly we are in a post-satire world.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40687521
Mr Spicer stepped down because he was unhappy with President Donald Drumpf's appointment of a new communications director, according to reports. Mr Spicer's press briefings were a cable news hit, but he withdrew from camera in recent weeks. He told US media that the White House "could benefit from a clean slate".
Yeah, literally replace everyone in that building with a clean piece of actual slate and the state of world affairs would significantly improve overnight.
Spicer's low points :
inflating crowd sizes at Drumpf inauguration at first briefing
his appearance, particularly his suits, reportedly criticised by Drumpf
saying Hitler never used chemical weapons and referring to Holocaust "centres"
butt of text message joke by adviser Steve Bannon about his weight
defending Drumpf "covfefe" tweet by saying it had hidden meaning
frozen out of meeting with the Pope in Rome, despite being devout Catholic
not invited to Paris for Drumpf visit
His proclivity for gaffes and garbling of his words, as well as making debatable assertions, soon made Mr Spicer a household name. Mr Spicer was roundly mocked after he reportedly hid by a hedgerow on the White House grounds to avoid reporters on the night Mr Drumpf fired the FBI director in May.
But wait, who's this I see coming along to replace him ?
Combative Wall Street financier Anthony Scaramucci has been picked for the role that Mr Spicer partially filled. The New York Times reports that 45-year-old Mr Spicer "vehemently" disagreed with the appointment of Mr Scaramucci, which he believed to be a "major mistake".
In an August 2015 interview with Fox Business, he dismissed Mr Drumpf as a "hack" and "an inherited money dude" with "a big mouth". Mr Scaramucci also apologised and said he had been "unexperienced" as he explained his previous criticism of the president.
"I love the president and it's an honour to be here," Mr Scaramucci said, adding: "He is genuinely a wonderful human being." He also said: "The president has really good karma." Mr Scaramucci, who has no previous experience in communications roles, paid tribute to Mr Spicer as "a true American patriot" and "incredibly gracious".
Truly we are in a post-satire world.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40687521
Stargate Origins
This could work. It would probably have to be limited to a single series, but it could work.
The 10-episode series “Stargate Origins” will tell the story of Catherine Langford, a character who occasionally appeared in previous “Stargate” TV shows. The show will be available via MGM’s new streaming service, titled Stargate Command, which will be available this fall. Mark Ilvedson and Justin Michael Terry will write “Stargate Origins,” which will revolve around Langford, daughter of archaeologist Paul Langford, who discovered the ancient, round Stargate. In the show, Catherine will go on an adventure in order to save the Earth from terrifying darkness. The online series will be directed by Mercedes Bryce Morgan.
http://variety.com/2017/tv/news/stargate-revival-origins-new-digital-show-1202501988/
The 10-episode series “Stargate Origins” will tell the story of Catherine Langford, a character who occasionally appeared in previous “Stargate” TV shows. The show will be available via MGM’s new streaming service, titled Stargate Command, which will be available this fall. Mark Ilvedson and Justin Michael Terry will write “Stargate Origins,” which will revolve around Langford, daughter of archaeologist Paul Langford, who discovered the ancient, round Stargate. In the show, Catherine will go on an adventure in order to save the Earth from terrifying darkness. The online series will be directed by Mercedes Bryce Morgan.
http://variety.com/2017/tv/news/stargate-revival-origins-new-digital-show-1202501988/
Thursday, 20 July 2017
This holiday should be a learning experience for May, but it won't be
Prime Minister Theresa May is to take a three-week walking holiday in the Alps with husband Philip, Number 10 says. Mrs May is to spend five days in northern Italy next week, before attending the commemoration of the centenary of the battle of Passchendaele in Belgium.
She will then resume her holiday with two weeks in Switzerland. It is the second consecutive year that the couple have taken a walking holiday in the country. She joked on Wednesday that fellow Conservatives may be relieved that she is not returning to Wales, where she made the decision to call a snap election while walking in Snowdonia with husband Philip at Easter.
Mrs May has previously said that she loves holidaying in Switzerland because she can get some "peace and quiet".
Well, this demonstrates idiocy for two reasons. First, there aren't many fields of wheat in Switzerland, making it a poor choice of holiday destination. Second, for the love of all things holy please start paying attention to the demonstrable fact that the existence of the Schengen Area has not led to the total collapse of Europe. That free movement you're so keen on ending... FFS, WHY ?!?!
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-40667038
She will then resume her holiday with two weeks in Switzerland. It is the second consecutive year that the couple have taken a walking holiday in the country. She joked on Wednesday that fellow Conservatives may be relieved that she is not returning to Wales, where she made the decision to call a snap election while walking in Snowdonia with husband Philip at Easter.
Mrs May has previously said that she loves holidaying in Switzerland because she can get some "peace and quiet".
Well, this demonstrates idiocy for two reasons. First, there aren't many fields of wheat in Switzerland, making it a poor choice of holiday destination. Second, for the love of all things holy please start paying attention to the demonstrable fact that the existence of the Schengen Area has not led to the total collapse of Europe. That free movement you're so keen on ending... FFS, WHY ?!?!
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-40667038
Wednesday, 19 July 2017
The weird world of the hammerhead worm
Nature continues being weird and icky.
The worms' mouths are not located on their oddly shaped heads. Instead, they're right in the middle of their bodies, on their undersides, said Peter Ducey, a biologist at The State University of New York, Cortland, who researches these creatures. When the worms attack their prey, they first excrete glue-like mucus to adhere their soon-to-be dinner to their bodies. They then excrete digestive enzymes, reducing their prey to goo, which the flatworm can then suck up with its mouth (which also doubles as its anus).
The heads are dotted with chemoreceptors (a sense organ) and organs that scientists call eyes, though it's not really clear how much light those "eyes" can detect, Ducey said. No one knows for sure why the worms' heads are so weird-looking, but it could have to do with the positioning of these sensory organs, he said.
"If you have a big, broad head and you have chemical receptors on both sides of it, you can compare the right side and the left side," Ducey said. If one side detects more earthworm scent, he said, it could signal the worm to crawl in that direction.
https://www.livescience.com/59838-hammerhead-worm-with-mustache-captured-video.html
The worms' mouths are not located on their oddly shaped heads. Instead, they're right in the middle of their bodies, on their undersides, said Peter Ducey, a biologist at The State University of New York, Cortland, who researches these creatures. When the worms attack their prey, they first excrete glue-like mucus to adhere their soon-to-be dinner to their bodies. They then excrete digestive enzymes, reducing their prey to goo, which the flatworm can then suck up with its mouth (which also doubles as its anus).
The heads are dotted with chemoreceptors (a sense organ) and organs that scientists call eyes, though it's not really clear how much light those "eyes" can detect, Ducey said. No one knows for sure why the worms' heads are so weird-looking, but it could have to do with the positioning of these sensory organs, he said.
"If you have a big, broad head and you have chemical receptors on both sides of it, you can compare the right side and the left side," Ducey said. If one side detects more earthworm scent, he said, it could signal the worm to crawl in that direction.
https://www.livescience.com/59838-hammerhead-worm-with-mustache-captured-video.html
We literally can't do this
Can we please stop this utter nonsense now ? Please ? A former EU negotiator is quite cross :
"It's insanely complex. It's just insane. I consider myself something of an expert in some aspects of the EU but every time I talk to anybody else who works in the institutions about Brexit, new areas of insane complexity and potentially awful consequences for the UK come up."
"Somebody mentioned to me the other day patents. I had never even thought of patents. But when you start digging down a bit and think about issues like intellectual property rights and so on, these are little areas but these all need to be addressed in 20 months. If they are not addressed in 20 months the consequences for individuals and businesses in the UK will be awful. I've got a long list: medicine approvals, aviation safety, accreditation for service operations for planes, and so many more. Countless agencies governed by the ECJ. The UK may need to put in place entire new agencies for these things within 20 months. You can imagine the consequences of this not being done.
"It gets more complex every day than I thought it would be."
And what about a free trade deal? Brexit Secretary David Davis and others have insisted that they will be able to negotiate both the divorce agreement and a long-term UK-EU trade relationship within the two year Article 50 period.
"The idea that you can have a free trade deal or future relationship sorted within the two years is just absolutely absurd. There is no possibility of that. There could be a divorce agreement and maybe a transition deal if it was very simple. The UK could agree to stay in the EEA for five years, for example. But the UK would have to agree to the package. There just isn't time."
He adds: "They are dealing with Northern Ireland this week. They are dealing with citizens rights this week and the financial settlement too. I can't think that there is going to be a solution to any of them coming this week — and that's another month gone until the next round. Also, don't forget that the agreement can't be reached in March 2019. It has to be reached in October 2018 at the very latest as it will have to be ratified by EU parliaments as well. The idea that the entire deal will be done within the two years I find impossible to believe. Even with the best will in the world, it cannot be done."
http://www.businessinsider.fr/uk/former-eu-negotiator-mays-government-has-handled-brexit-in-the-absolute-worst-way-2017-7/
"It's insanely complex. It's just insane. I consider myself something of an expert in some aspects of the EU but every time I talk to anybody else who works in the institutions about Brexit, new areas of insane complexity and potentially awful consequences for the UK come up."
"Somebody mentioned to me the other day patents. I had never even thought of patents. But when you start digging down a bit and think about issues like intellectual property rights and so on, these are little areas but these all need to be addressed in 20 months. If they are not addressed in 20 months the consequences for individuals and businesses in the UK will be awful. I've got a long list: medicine approvals, aviation safety, accreditation for service operations for planes, and so many more. Countless agencies governed by the ECJ. The UK may need to put in place entire new agencies for these things within 20 months. You can imagine the consequences of this not being done.
"It gets more complex every day than I thought it would be."
And what about a free trade deal? Brexit Secretary David Davis and others have insisted that they will be able to negotiate both the divorce agreement and a long-term UK-EU trade relationship within the two year Article 50 period.
"The idea that you can have a free trade deal or future relationship sorted within the two years is just absolutely absurd. There is no possibility of that. There could be a divorce agreement and maybe a transition deal if it was very simple. The UK could agree to stay in the EEA for five years, for example. But the UK would have to agree to the package. There just isn't time."
He adds: "They are dealing with Northern Ireland this week. They are dealing with citizens rights this week and the financial settlement too. I can't think that there is going to be a solution to any of them coming this week — and that's another month gone until the next round. Also, don't forget that the agreement can't be reached in March 2019. It has to be reached in October 2018 at the very latest as it will have to be ratified by EU parliaments as well. The idea that the entire deal will be done within the two years I find impossible to believe. Even with the best will in the world, it cannot be done."
http://www.businessinsider.fr/uk/former-eu-negotiator-mays-government-has-handled-brexit-in-the-absolute-worst-way-2017-7/
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