Sister blog of Physicists of the Caribbean in which I babble about non-astronomy stuff, because everyone needs a hobby

Monday, 11 April 2016

Being right is necessary but not sufficient

Not Even Right

A cautionary tale of just how good a model can be and still be wrong. The two galaxies on the right are a very famous pair known as Markarian's Eyes. It seems logical and sensible to assume that the weird structures have been formed by a collision between the two galaxies. Indeed, simulations (such as the one on the left) managed to reproduce very similar features using nothing more than two virtual galaxies and the absolute minimum of physics (i.e. gravity). Using more sophisticated models gave even better results (see link).

But this extremely simple and consistent picture turned out to be wrong - or at least woefully incomplete. Observations later revealed that there's a huge and spectacular stream of ionized gas linking these two galaxies to a third much larger galaxy, which was previously thought not to have been involved at all.

It's all too easy to assume that just because a model gets very precise details right, it must be the correct solution. In fact that's a necessary condition of a good model - but even reproducing very precise details is sometimes not enough to guarantee that you've come up with the true explanation. Sometimes even being right isn't good enough.

6 comments:

  1. Big Bang theory anyone? It It's a good, but not great model. It is also wrong.

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  2. Care to elaborate on what it gets wrong ?

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  3. Let me find the posts later and I will provide the links.

    ReplyDelete
  4. It can't be Planet X - it's either Planet IX (if Pluto isn't considered a planet) or planet XIV (if Pluto, and thus by extension the other 5 currently-recognised dwarf planets, are considered planets). Of course, if more dwarf planets are recognised before (if it ever happens) the inferred planet is actually discovered, its number will slip further.
    I vote we go with the age-old precedent from astronomers faced with something inferred but not yet proven to exist and call it The Dark Planet.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I vote we go with the age-old precedent from astronomers faced with something inferred but not yet proven to exist and call it The Dark Planet.
    I second that. Now to call the IAU...
    But if it has a moon, we're totally calling it Moony McMoonface.

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  6. I haven't forgotten about this. I have been spending many hours doing research in other areas.

    ReplyDelete

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