In terms of any large project it's better to think of "guidelines" rather than "deadlines". I don't think anyone takes the 2018 target as likely.
But SpaceX are beginning to worry me more and more. Yes, they've successfully developed (almost) routine cargo deliveries to the ISS. Yes, they've developed a rocket which can fly back to Earth and land vertically. That's very impressive indeed. But that rocket has yet to be re-used, despite repeated claims that it's ready to do so and that static ground tests have confirmed that. If that's the case, why wait so long ? Launch the bloody thing already. There's absolutely no point in a re-usable rocket if you don't re-use it. Worse, if all that investment in clever technology doesn't actually get you a faster turnaround between launches, or cut your overall costs significantly, then reusability begins to look like fool's gold. And their latest scheme is dramatic and inspiring, right enough, but... tourists around the Moon ? Before having launched any astronauts at all ? Come on.
I wouldn't say I'm skeptical just yet, but I'm definitely worried.
On Monday, SpaceX announced plans to send two space tourists around the Moon next year. The audacious, week-long flight would take place using a Falcon Heavy rocket and Crew Dragon spacecraft and be the first time humans have been beyond low-Earth orbit since 1972.
Some media outlets have compared the mission to Apollo 8, humanity's first crewed mission to lunar space, which happened in 1968. In terms of traveling to a vantage point where Earth is a small blue-and-white orb dangling in darkness of space, that's certainly true. Apollo 8, however, slowed down and entered orbit, whereas the Crew Dragon would use a "free-return" trajectory, whipping around the far side of the Moon to slingshot back toward Earth.
A more accurate mission comparison, therefore, is Apollo 13.
It's hard to say whether these two SpaceX customers could work themselves out of an Apollo 13-esque crisis. They have asked not to be identified; all we can really say about them is that they must have a lot of money. SpaceX isn't saying how much the duo will pay for tickets, but some available cost comparisons include the amount tourists have paid to fly on Russian rockets (at least $20 million), the average cost of a SpaceX or Boeing seat to ship an astronaut to the ISS ($58 million, according to one report), and the amount NASA currently pays Russia for Soyuz seats ($80 million).
http://www.planetary.org/blogs/jason-davis/2017/20170302-spacex-tourists-2018.html
Well, it is all just hype. Is is modern Ponzi scheme feeding on banks and investors. It needs high volume publicity. That is why Musk today want to land on Mars and probably tomorrow we will hear that his target is Europa and other Jovian moons.
ReplyDeleteIt is obvious for me just from the begging.
Sorry dude.
But of course it is possible, someone with solid engineering background and good luck may take care about all of this, and rescue all the idea. Because it is worth of research.
Possibly. Personally I'm not there yet. After all, SpaceX do have working cargo ships (which are not so far from being man-rated) and rockets which can fly back to Earth and land vertically. So it cannot be pure hype. But whether this will actually result in the very dramatic cost savings of the hype remains to be seen. If it's just saving a few percent, then it's all just smoke and mirrors.
ReplyDeleteDeveloping a crewed rocket ?
- Sure.
Developing a crewed rockets that's re-usable ?
- Fine.
Developing a crewed rocket that's re-usable and much cheaper than anything previously ?
- Hmmm, well, let's see...
How about we start with tourists ?
- Umm, Elon...
No, wait, we'll have a crewed re-usable rocket that's incredibly cheap and flies tourists around the MOON !
- No Elon STOP !