There does not seem to be an easy way for the truth to rule supreme. Frustratingly for scientists, presenting accurate facts which “disprove” a conspiracy theory does not usually help. In fact, it can even make a false belief stronger. Lewandowsky found that the stronger a person believes in a conspiracy, the less likely they are to trust scientific facts. It is more likely they will think the person attempting to reason with them is in on it. “What that means is that any evidence against a conspiracy theory is reinterpreted as evidence in favour of it.” The rejection of science is, in part, fuelled by conspiracy theorists, he further found.
I hope someone will eventually follow up on that interesting study some months back which found no evidence for the backfire effect. Anecdotally, it certainly does exist, yet the study seemed credible and well done.
This highlights the extent to which we live in a polarised world. One study looking at how conspiracy theories spread online, revealed that there is no overlap between those who share scientific news, and those who share conspiracies or fake news.
We now know that a person’s ideology is often related to their beliefs. The strongest predictor of climate denial, for instance, is a free-market ideology, Lewandowsky discovered. Through the work of Douglas and others, we now also know many of the traits that make people more susceptible to believing something without evidence. We need to realise that we are “drawn to patterns,” even when there are none, says Grimes. “The reality is, we live in a stochastic Universe. It’s tempting to draw a narrative, but there’s no narrative, there are no waves, we are joining dots in the sand,” says Grimes.
Although technology has created the many echo chambers and filter bubbles we see today, it could also help overcome them. One pioneering experiment in Norway introduced a quiz to make sure the person understood what they had read before they were able to comment on an article. This might help people “calm down” before distributing random noise, says Lewandowsky, but at the same time it is not censoring anyone from having a voice.
Still sorta think this should be applied to voting in some way.
Another strategy that could help is educating people to better understand trusted sources, as well as holding public figures to account when they spread misinformation. Several fact-checking websites and journalists already attempt to do this, but it doesn’t always work. Grimes has found that people set in their beliefs are unlikely to change their opinions, but those who “aren’t fully committed” can be swayed when presented with evidence. That, he hopes, means we can overturn many conspiracies if people are provided with compelling, fact-based evidence.
If we go on that very nice quote from a political article a few days ago, "it's very hard to reason people out of a position they haven't been reasoned in to", then perhaps those who are persuadable by evidence are simply those who are largely victims of misinformation. Those who are not persuadable are those with more serious neurological or psychological problems : poor pattern recognition, a deep belief in control figures, etc.
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20180124-the-enduring-appeal-of-conspiracy-theories
I have my own explanations for the appeal of conspiracy theories. My actual explanations are long and tedious, but the simplistic and incomplete version says we've kinda failed to understand how truth isn't a simple binary proposition. Truth isn't as simple as that.
ReplyDeleteThe Japanese culture comes down to us largely intact from neolithic times. They tie a special rope around what's sacred, the shimenawa . They also tie on shide , look kinda like lightning bolts. Lots of unknowns can be blamed on the spirit world in Shinto - and people will pay a Shinto priest to wave the haraegushi over a new car or house, to exorcise evil spirits.
Conspiracy theories abound precisely because mankind is always trying to dream up explanations for what he doesn't understand. It's the spirits. Or the Bilderbergs. Or the Deep State. But it's always something. And it's always wrong. People lose a loved one and they yell up into the sky and blame God.
Facts can't possibly substitute for these Simple, Stupid and Wrong explanations. Mankind is predisposed to believe dumb things. Always has been.
I remember severely aggravating a climate change denier some years back. He was going on about how there's still some wiggle room for Doubt. I responded by saying "the interesting thing is, you're right. We are in very considerable doubt about how climate change will work out. It could be bad.. or very bad... or truly catastrophic. But at this point, denial is no longer an option. A good outcome is no longer on the table. The ice is melting. The sea levels are rising. The pH of the oceans is changing. Now.. will they evacuate New York City or will be let it turn into a Venice? That's doubt. But pretending it won't happen, that's not Doubt. That's just wishful thinking."
I believe that investment in conspiracy stories is a human universal, found in all cultures. But I also believe that some cultures are less heavily invested in these stories than others.
ReplyDeleteThere are cultures that apply trial and error thinking comparatively widely. Not just to mechanical problems, but to complex issues of relationship and influence. They do so more often and more deliberately than others.
The real threat comes from the fact that conspiracy theories are infectious while empirical calm is not. The spread of empiricism is a slow process of survival over time after the other alternatives have crashed and burned.