I might have to try and read the original paper, time permitting.
A team of researchers led by Associate Professor Alexander Petukhov of the Institute of International Relations and World History at Lobachevsky University is developing social conflict models on the basis of nonlinear dynamics.
For mathematical modeling, an important feature of social and political processes is that they cannot be strictly defined. They are always subject to small changes and fluctuations. Quite often, social processes are compared to Brownian particles. These small changes (fluctuations) in their trajectory are explained by the chaotic motion of other molecules. In social processes, fluctuations can be regarded as manifestations of their individual participants' free will, as well as other random manifestations of the external environment.
https://eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-06/lu-lus062818.php
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