Cholera cases in Yemen have been slashed by a new system that predicts where outbreaks will occur. Last year, there were more than 50,000 new cases in just one week - this year, the numbers plummeted to about 2,500. The system has enabled aid workers to focus efforts on prevention several weeks in advance of an outbreak - by monitoring rainfall.
The Met Office produces a rainfall forecast for Yemen. Using its supercomputers, it is to determine the specific amount of rain that will fall and pinpoint the areas it will hit within a 10km (six-mile) radius.These are important because downpours overwhelm the sewerage system and spread the infection.
The forecasts are used in conjunction with a computer model developed by Prof Rita Colwell, at the University of Maryland, and Dr Antar Jutla, at West Virginia University. It draws on a variety of local information such as population density, access to clean water, and seasonal temperature. Together, this information enables scientists to predict the areas most likely to experience an outbreak, up to four weeks in advance.
Across the world, an estimated 30,000 people die of cholera each year - mostly in South Asia and Africa. The new predictive system has the potential to slash that number, according to Helen Ticehurst, who is the Met Office's international development manager.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-45259922
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