Take a look at Avi Loeb's publication record. You'll conclude that he's either a hugely prolific genius, or... not.
Originally shared by Ethan Siegel
“We often say that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and in all of these cases the evidence is very, very ordinary indeed. It’s worth keeping our mind open to the possibility that there’s more out there in the Universe than we presently realize, but not to embrace those possibilities as likely in any way whatsoever. When you leap to explanations that are fantastic, it’s all too easy to forget about the most likely explanations, which often involve nothing more than the natural phenomena already present and well-understood in the Universe we know.
In the case of interstellar interloper ʻOumuamua, we should be looking at the natural explanations first and foremost, not speculating about something for which the only evidence is our own wishful thinking. After all, what can be asserted without evidence can — and should — be dismissed without evidence.”
When you find a new phenomenon in the Universe, one that you’ve never seen before, the opportunity to discover something new about your reality is unparalleled. Oftentimes, you’ll try to use what you know to infer what behavior you expect, but it’s usually just a first-order, naive approximation. Until you collect enough data, find enough objects that fall into the new category, and study them with the required precision and detail, you’ll merely be speculating about what’s going on.
Last year, our Solar System got a visit from an interstellar interloper, marking the first time that’s ever happened. It’s been an interesting ride, full of interesting science and fascinating findings. Which is why it’s maddening that the one time it makes news is when a couple of scientists from Harvard take off their scientist hat and run headlong into sci-fi speculations.
For what I’m sure won’t be the last time, invoking aliens as an explanation for what you don’t understand isn’t science. Don’t fall for it. Get the facts instead!
https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2018/11/08/aliens-is-not-a-scientific-explanation-for-interstellar-asteroid-ʻoumuamua/
Last year, our Solar System got a visit from an interstellar interloper, marking the first time that’s ever happened....
ReplyDeleteFirst time we are aware that it has been observed.
Either sloppy writing or thinking. Hopefully the former.
I can't find that text, it might have been altered.
ReplyDeleteRhys Taylor It's a literal copy from Siegel's commentary. First comment on original also references it.
ReplyDeleteMy ctrl+f finds only one incident of "last" :
ReplyDeleteLast year, the first unambiguously interstellar object, ʻOumuamua, flew through our Solar System...
Which is entirely accurate.
2nd para from the end on the quote
ReplyDeleteAaargh I feel dense. It's in Ethan's G+ summary and I was looking in the original article.
ReplyDeletehttps://lh3.googleusercontent.com/TR7avjmpi8GXC71yK4ffmC62rZYnYeJXqEqixVpNl7GRuVIhG2Lv4ihQpH0h2w-9QVplDQcpGJNgpguZlByMR7vjBtBmlAr6Zz1B=s0
This quote by Loeb from another source caught my eye:
ReplyDelete"I follow the maxim of Sherlock Holmes: When you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."
Sorry but that isn't logic. That's a leap of faith masquerading as logic. In general, it isn't possible to enumerate all possibilities. So you cannot, in practice, exclude all possibilities but one.