Well, we're not stuck with the deal - there are still three choices on the table regardless of outcome of this leadership challenge:
1. Catastrophic no-deal Brexit. 2. May's deal Brexit 3. Withdraw Article 50 and accept that we can't find an acceptable Brexit regardless of the referendum result.
I suspect, however, that the ERG and their fellow-travellers are going to try to draw this out for long enough that we get option 1 by default ("all" they need to do is keep Parliament distracted until 11pm on the 29th March, and that's what they get).
However, if Parliament chose to move fast, it could (just about) decide on the morning of the 29th of March that Brexit was a bad idea and withdraw Article 50 notification - it would have to repeal the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 into the process, and probably the notification act, too (to convince the ECJ that this is a good-faith revocation as per the recent judgement), but it could do it.
Mike McLoughlin I suspect not. IIRC Farage may have mentioned the possibility of a second referendum (once) some time ago, but there doesn't seem to be much mood among the Brexiteers for another vote. They seem pretty determined to avoid that, presumably because they think they'd risk losing rather than further secure their position.
Based on the public support from MPs, I reckon May will survive, buy herself a day or so of renewed confidence and then everyone will remember that they hate the deal and we'll be back to square one.
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What a train wreck...
ReplyDeleteI wonder if that is the Brexiteers' real plan. The alternative was (for them) getting closer to a new referendum.
ReplyDeleteWell, we're not stuck with the deal - there are still three choices on the table regardless of outcome of this leadership challenge:
ReplyDelete1. Catastrophic no-deal Brexit.
2. May's deal Brexit
3. Withdraw Article 50 and accept that we can't find an acceptable Brexit regardless of the referendum result.
I suspect, however, that the ERG and their fellow-travellers are going to try to draw this out for long enough that we get option 1 by default ("all" they need to do is keep Parliament distracted until 11pm on the 29th March, and that's what they get).
However, if Parliament chose to move fast, it could (just about) decide on the morning of the 29th of March that Brexit was a bad idea and withdraw Article 50 notification - it would have to repeal the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 into the process, and probably the notification act, too (to convince the ECJ that this is a good-faith revocation as per the recent judgement), but it could do it.
Mike McLoughlin I suspect not. IIRC Farage may have mentioned the possibility of a second referendum (once) some time ago, but there doesn't seem to be much mood among the Brexiteers for another vote. They seem pretty determined to avoid that, presumably because they think they'd risk losing rather than further secure their position.
ReplyDeleteBased on the public support from MPs, I reckon May will survive, buy herself a day or so of renewed confidence and then everyone will remember that they hate the deal and we'll be back to square one.
ReplyDelete