Well there we are then.
The government is defeated on its proposed Brexit deal by a majority of 230. The result of the vote is 202 in favour and 432 against. It means the prime minister has three sitting days before returning to Parliament to set out her response.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/46874049?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5c3e3626bbde15067cf7ffed%26Government+defeated+on+its+Brexit+deal%262019-01-15T19:39:30.100Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:824986cc-91aa-4d7b-89bf-8f8b9f2fd5a6&pinned_post_asset_id=5c3e3626bbde15067cf7ffed&pinned_post_type=share
I do not live in the UK, nor do I have a good grasp of the issues involved.
ReplyDeleteBut some random person I read on the internet says that the UK now has two options. Is this correct?
[1] No-Deal Brexit. Result: UK's economy implodes.
[2] Brexit is canceled. Result: The mobs who voted "Leave" rise up in riots and burn the UK to the ground.
Sort of maybe.
ReplyDeleteWhat it will almost certainly do for a little while is try for [3] : get a better deal from the EU. This will have a shitload of complications around it, possibly involving a new government, but Labour has committed to trying this even if they get elected so that's by far the most likely immediate outcome.
It won't work though, because the EU have repeatedly said they won't do another deal. The UK will try but ultimately it will fail. Then we'll hit options [1] or [2].
[1] would be all accounts be an economic nightmare.
[2] would see some rioting. What we don't have is much of an indication as to how bad this would be. Not so long ago, 700,000 people were marching against Brexit, and while there have been protests in favour of it and the feckless idiots certainly make an awful lot of noise, nothing like that scale has occurred demanding that we leave the EU.
A much bigger worry to my mind is that we will hit [1] by default because we don't have a leading politician willing to try [2].
Well, a MP was murdered by a far-right nut over Brexit, so even if they aren't that many, it feels from outside that they can still make a headlines-grabbing mess...
ReplyDeleteRhys Taylor I though the EU was dead set against any further negotiation? Not that they wouldn't be hurt by a no-deal Brexit, but because they'd be hurt by any Brexit.
ReplyDeleteDaniel Taylor Indeed they are. That is why option 3 will ultimately just waste time.
ReplyDeleteWinchell Chung So far, the mobs who voted "Leave" appear to be quite small - they struggle to gather more than 100 or so protestors. It appears that many of the Leave voters were protest votes against the way they feel neglected by politics rather than strong anti-EU feeling, and thus will not riot if staying in the EU is backed by attempting to address regional issues.
ReplyDelete