Indicators are NOT all blinking simultaneously

So the indicative votes have passes their first stage. Shortly beforehand I wrote elsewhere :

If I were Theresa May and I'd just walked into a door, thereby restoring a modicum of sanity, my plan would be as follows :

1) Solicit opinions on alternative options. This appears to have already been done.
2) Hold a series of indicative, free, non-binding votes on as many options as possible, including the existing proposed deal.
3) Select a subset of the most popular options (with luck no more than three). Hold cross-party discussions with MPs to see if they can be persuaded to reduce those options down to two.
4) Hold further indicative votes to get hard numbers.
5) Repeat 2-4 until a binary preference emerges. If necessary, request further short extension from EU on the grounds that a path to resolution is emerging.
6) Hold binding votes on final two choices.

That might not work, but it's what I would do...

This is very nearly what actually happened. May uttered some usual air-escaping-from-lungs level of stupid comments about being reluctant on the grounds that Parliament might vote for "something completely impractical" - as though Brexit wasn't ! - and still wanting another vote on her deal, despite Bercow and the DUP again rejecting it, and some idiot Tory even suggested making the indicative votes binding (which would have defeated the whole purpose). But ultimately stage 2 was completed. Except, weirdly, the opposition decided that their votes should not be free but that MPs should be whipped (meaning they have to toe the party line or resign). I find this completely bizarre, but not at all surprising coming from Corbyn. It probably didn't make much difference since they were directed to vote against all the harder versions of Brexit, which they likely would have done anyway.

So yes, there were certainly shenanigans aplenty, but ultimately things are going to plan. The results were not optimal, but they weren't necessarily that awful either. There seems to be a general cry of despair that Parliament did not succeed in choosing an alternative yet, but this is unwarranted. Yes, it would have been better if they'd chosen at least one (or preferably several) options by majority. But this is not necessary, because it's only stage 2 of 6. Sure, stage 3 is going to be slightly modified to, "select a subset of the least unpopular options", but that does not invalidate the remaining stages. Knowing now for certain that all options are unpopular, and having quantitative estimates of which ones are the least intolerable if not the most desirable, is a necessary first step.

How bad were the defeats ? There are many ways to slice the data, of which the most sophisticated is probably this one. But I prefer this simpler graph of the net vote against each deal, using data from the Guardian article below. This shows the scale of the challenge to get each proposal accepted, though it lacks details on party support.

I'm not going to do a detail breakdown of each - for that, see this article (I have labelled option O as "managed no deal v. 2", option H as "managed no deal v. 3", and used the results of Meaningless Vote 2 for May's deal). Taking the figures at face value, it seems that only Ken Clarke's custom's union and a confirmatory public vote (i.e. a second referendum) have any hope of passing. If Parliament continues to debate more options, based on numbers it would probably have to include Labour's custom union plans, an alternative, more complex "common market 2.0", and completely revoking article 50. All versions of No Deal have nowhere near enough support to have a hope of passing and can be completely eliminated.

Of course, it might well still be the case the Parliament is not able to choose anything at all. But we won't know that until next week* : at least now they have the data they need to even attempt to forge an acceptable compromise and make a truly meaningful choice.

*Notwithstanding any other unexpected developments that could render all this completely obsolete, which is not at all implausible.

All eight indicative vote options on Brexit defeated by MPs - as it happened

The day's political developments as they happened, including the indicative votes debate as MPs choose from eight options