Boldy going where everyone has been before

Some quick thoughts on the EU elections, after the fact.

Well, they're not much different to what I said before the fact, really. The polls were about right, as usual. The anti-Brexit parties out-performed the pro-Brexit ones, albeit with some uncertainty as it's not clear what some parties really want. It's nice to see the BBC reporting this (they mentioned it on my morning podcast too, so this isn't a one-off), but it should be admitted that there's quite a lot of scope for disagreement.

The BBC have gone with the strictest possible comparison on stated Brexit stance, which excludes Labour and the Tories because they've both been so damn ambiguous. That puts pro-Brexit at 35% and anti-Brexit at 40%.

But it's debatable how fair this is. The Tories have been extremely pro-Brexit, with some notable exceptions, albeit pro-deal (of some sort) rather than in favour of a hard Brexit. Including them in the pro-Brexit camp hands victory to the Brexiteers, at 44% to the Remainers 40%. But that's still ignoring Labour. Labour are undoubtedly the toughest to assign : members appear to be largely Remainers but the leaders are pro-Brexit of the softer variety. If we say that the Tories are pro and Labour anti (the most natural interpretation, in my view), then that takes to score to 55% anti-Brexit and 45% pro-Brexit.

Of course if Labour are also pro-Brexit, then that gives the Brexiteers a commanding lead. But that doesn't seem very sensible, since Corbyn's pro-Brexit stance has been widely condemned by most of his own party.

Still, that the Remain vote was split among many parties doesn't change the fact that the anti-Brexit stance could well be larger than the pro-Brexit stance, in aggregate. Individual parties don't matter much from that perspective.

From a party perspective, history should be accounted for as well. The Brexit Party weren't starting from nowhere, they simply swiped almost all of UKIP's vote plus a few others. Anti-Brexit parties always do well in the UK MEP elections, the party has no policies beyond doing Brexit, and is based around the ravings of a racist toad who's inexplicably but perpetually and undeniably popular. This is hardly the political landslide Farage would have it be seen as, it's just another confirmation that people like him for some reason.

Not that this is great news for the Remain camp either. Labour lost 11%, having previously been in the ascendent due to their populist leader. On the other hand, the Lib Dems have been rather unpopular until recently, so their gain of 14% is arguable all the more impressive.

Thing is, though, turnout was only 37%. All that sound and fury only persuaded a meagre third of the population that the EU elections were worth bothering with. Optimistic interpretation : it's still anyone's game. Pessimistic interpretation : the great British public are a bunch of ignorant nutters.

Brexit Party dominates in EU elections

The Brexit Party was the clear winner in the UK's European elections, with the pro-EU Lib Dems coming second. The Conservatives and Labour suffered heavy losses, with the former heading for less than 10% of the vote. Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage said the two main parties "could learn a big message" from the results.