Crisis and opportunity

Okay, a few words about the latest Brexit developments.

Where to begin ? This dangerous tragedy appears to be evolving into a truly hilarious farce. I haven't felt this optimistic in months. We could be on the verge of total victory, or the very least mitigation into something bearable. Of course the risk of utter disaster is still very real, and shouldn't be taken lightly, but nor should it detract from a feeling that we might, just might, make it out of this intact if not unscathed.

Boris decided that it was better to prorogue Parliament than try and persuade them not to delay Brexit. He used the stick instead of the carrot, threatening rebels with suspension. He blamed MPs for making it difficult to negotiate with the EU. Result ? MPs didn't like this. When asked to delay Brexit, 21 MPs rebelled and were suspended. Now the Conservatives are in a substantial minority government with no control over those rogue MPs. He used threats without even trying persuasion, thinking he had the authority to boss people around, that respect would be granted to him by mere virtue of the office he held and in utter defiance of his personal qualities. Did he apologise for his actions afterwards ? Of course he didn't, not a bit of it.

Actually, he'd already lost the wafer-thin majority when the delay bill was called, and suspending grandees the likes of Hammond, Clarke and Soames exposes his political incompetence for all to see. It's almost self-evident that if you suspend Churchill's grandson then you're on the wrong tack. The conclusion, again, is that that Boris has absolutely no feel for when to use the carrot instead of the stick, losing his first four votes with barely a pause for breath. He answered not a single question in his first PMQs, instead making weak jokes and throwing the questions back. He didn't even apologise for being a racist, making poultry jokes but paltry excuses (terrible pun intended). And he was called out multiple times for not answering questions, and for barefaced lies about the EU negotiations - everyone knows nothing's happening there, but he unashamedly claimed they were making good progress. That he lies is unsurprising, but what's heartening is that MPs aren't the least bit fooled by it. His actions don't make him look strong, they reveal him as untrustworthy. The latitude MPs give to ordinary politicians is not forthcoming for a chronic liar like Boris.

Then, after losing his own brother as an MP - he can't even keep his family loyal - he decided to give a speech in front of the police in which he declared that he'd rather end up dead in a ditch than implement the delay law. Yes, he'd previously said he'd abide by the law, but now we get a PM declaring in front of the police that he doesn't want to obey the law - already a choice being criticised by the police. Once again a total lack of compromise when flexibility is an asset rather than a liability : the problem with "do or die" is, of course, that "die" is a very real possibility. Not to mention the revelation that Boris planned to prorogue Parliament months ago. One would think that learning to compromise and be open are the most obvious lessons from the failure of Theresa May, but apparently neither of these are obvious to Boris.

While Boris founders in his own floppy-haired stupidity, the opposition have got their act together. They considered various options and went for legislation rather than electioneering. That's turned out to be entirely the correct choice, because the animosity between the cross-party MPs who voted to delay is very real : unlike Boris, Philip Hammond is not a man who says, "I'd rather boil my head than hand victory to the opposition" lightly. This produced an acceptable compromise to all sides, which is exactly what Parliament is supposed to do. They then maintained that spirit of unity by denying Boris an election, his only escape route left. The suspended MPs are in no hurry to risk their positions, and the whole opposition don't trust the PM as far as they can throw him. Thus they will, if they're sensible, try and force him to ask for the extension he so loathes before allowing an election (and they've just confirmed that this is exactly what they'll do). That massively weakens Boris' political capital, forcing him either to backtrack on his "dead in a ditch" stance : he can either resign, ask for the extension in humiliation, or refuse and face litigation - which the opposition have planned for. Or of course he can always find a ditch and go and die in it.

It's obvious to everyone that he has not a clue how to behave. Does this seem like a man capable of running a political campaign ? He cannot keep his own MPs or even his own brother loyal. He receives scathing criticism from otherwise loyal Tories. His only political tactic is to resort to threats and bullying, and that simply doesn't work. Threats have their place in politics, but they are always supposed to be last resorts, not the first response. You cannot threaten someone who does not already feel some sense of loyalty to you.

All this bodes extremely well for those wanting to prevent Brexit or at least prevent a No Deal Brexit. If Boris can't even keep his own party together, and can't even persuade the House to call an election, what chance does he have in the actual negotiations with the EU ? Zero.

What, though, of Boris' only escape route - a general election ? The current delay is purely for political expedience - it's all but certain that an election will happen in the near future. Therein we must temper our optimism, a move the opposition have, fortunately, recognised. There are grounds for optimism here too, but also concerns.

Optimistically, none of the above bodes well for Boris. He's gone on a deranged mission to insult just about everyone, much as he's always done. The police, the opposition, the EU, minorities of all stripes, Parliament itself, his own brother, his own party... is there anyone left he hasn't insulted ? His list of allies grows thin indeed. Expelling MPs en masse is unlikely to be something the Tory party machinery is going to reward come campaigning season. And his singular approach of bully and bluster is fine for preaching for the choir - that's why he won the PM election with the Tory faithful - but useless for winning hearts and minds, which is vital for winning back Tory control of the House. Hell, he's gone off to Scotland - Scotland ! - to rally support, the very part of the UK that probably hates him the most. Boris' persona of an affable clown may be a carefully cultivated image, but his political decisions betray that deep down, he is in fact a complete fool.

This all sounds rosy, but roses do have thorns. The strength in the opposition lies not in itself but in the weakness of Boris. The rebel alliance really is fragile, held together only by Boris' ludicrous intransigence and cross-party animosity. While things don't look good for Boris come election time, we should remember that he's largely untested in such a campaign - even fools have a few strengths. Given the first past the post electoral system, it is still credible that, if the pro-Remain parties don't tread carefully, we could end up with a Tory majority. And with many of the rogue Tories not standing at the next election, there's an opportunity for Boris to replace them with loyalists lunatics. How well that would play remains entirely to be seen, especially given that Brexit opinion polls are still narrow - the public still are not reliably convinced of the full problems of a No Deal scenario.

Is it credible that someone who starts their term of office this badly could make a success of it in the long wrong ? Not likely. But things which can't go on forever can go on for much longer than you think, and Boris still has opportunities to exploit. It's hard, at the moment, to see a No Deal happening at the end of October, and credible to suggest that we might have an even softer version of May's deal or even a second referendum. But fortune's wheel is ever turning, and the very fluidity of the situation warns us that any mistakes could be very costly.

I choose to look at this optimistically. Boris and his hideous gang of craven cronies can be beaten, so long as we refuse to play his game and don't make the mistake of fighting him on his terms. Get that Brexit extension. Humiliate him. Continue to pile on the pressure and expose him for what he is. Attack Boris personally and we may yet be swiftly rid of this gibbering idiot. But only then does the real challenge lie before us. Only then can we start to bring the conversation back to the moderate voices of reason and compromise. Only then will we have any chance of addressing the actual problems we face, rather than the personal politics that's incapacitated the entire British establishment.

For you cannot compromise with a lunatic like Boris. But it's vital, when the dust begins to settle, that we, as reasonable men and women, begin to compromise with each other. Politicians failed to do this last time, but came tantalisingly close to agreeing a solution. We need to make this a European style process of compromise and negotiation, offering us, at the very least, a solution that won't chop our own economic legs off. Politicians wasted most of the time given to them at the last extension, but there is hope that, having seen the risks of failure incarnate in a man such as Boris, they will not make the same mistake again. Such a failure would carry with it the risk of opening the door to far worse extremists than Boris - and that would be more than the country could bear.