Sister blog of Physicists of the Caribbean in which I babble about non-astronomy stuff, because everyone needs a hobby

Saturday, 26 March 2016

What people think about climate change

I really hate Forbes belligerent policy on ad blockers, but this is worth a read. Read the article first, then go directly to the survey results :
https://gmuchss.az1.qualtrics.com/CP/File.php?F=F_cRR9lW0HjZaiVV3

"Nearly all AMS members (96%) think climate change -as defined by AMS-is happening with almost 89% stating that they are either “extremely” or “very sure” it is happening. Only 1% think climate change is not happening."

I can't seem to find their particular definition of climate change, but only a lunatic would think the climate isn't changing. The climate isn't static almost by definition. What matters is whether or not they think humans are the cause.

"A large majority of AMS members indicated that human activity is causing at least a portion of  the changes in the climate over the past 50 years (see summary for details)….Conversely, 5% think the climate is caused largely or entirely by natural events, 6% say they don’t know…."

From the survey results :
"Specifically: 29% think the change is largely or entirely due to human activity (i.e., 81 to 100%); 38% think most of the change is caused by human activity (i.e., 61 to 80%); 14% think the change is caused more or less equally by human activity and natural events..."

So that's 67% who think climate change is largely due to human activity. That's a far cry from 97%. But make no mistake : if 67% of engineers told me my house was likely to fall down, I'd still act on that.
Furthermore that rises to 81% if we include those who think that humans are only an equal contributing factor. Only 12% are convinced that humans are not at all responsible.

Where things get very much more controversial is the section on whether the climate change has been dangerous or not (page 17 of the report). Only about 36% think the effects are primarily harmful, while another 36% think there's been a mixture of beneficial and harmful effects. 21% are undecided.

There's a somewhat stronger view that the effects in the future will be harmful, with 47% convinced they will be mostly harmful but only 29% saying there will be a mix. Still 19% are undecided.

But.... and it's a very big but.... not everyone polled here is a scientist :
"AMS is a professional and scientific society comprised of atmospheric scientists, meteorologists, climatologists, hydrologists, oceanographers, broadcasters, educators, policy officials and more."

By their own admission, only 57% of participants consider themselves an expert in climate science. Alas the responses only from that 57% are not yet available (as far as I can tell).

Originally shared by Vladimir Pecha

You may have seen them. Media reports a few years ago claiming that a survey of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) refutes the consensus position regarding climate change. When I saw how that survey and the results were being twisted and distorted, I realized that people read things with an eye for what they want to believe, so-called confirmation bias. AMS Executive Director Dr. Keith Seitter even wrote on the AMS website clarifying the results and condemning rampant distortion that was being spread. A full statement of the survey authors’ response to the horrific distortion of their findings can be found at this link. With such a mischaracterized response, the AMS felt that a new survey was needed. The preliminary results of that new report were released this week.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/03/24/96-of-american-meteorological-society-members-think-climate-change-is-happening-says-new-report/#274ea1b43935

2 comments:

  1. Then 96% of meteorologists haven't recent the IPCC AR5 scientific reports.

    ReplyDelete
  2. David Strumfels Why ? Is the IPCC now saying climate change isn't happening ?

    ReplyDelete

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