A snap opinion on the election result without much in the way of proper reflection or any time to see how things develop :
May is in trouble. She'll try to form a minority government with the DUP, and it will work for a little while but not for long. Her campaign was initiated (purportedly) on the basis that we need to deal with Brexit by giving her a strong mandate in the negotiations; that hasn't happened. Although the largest party and entitled to try and form a government, the personal pressure on May is going to escalate. When Bexit negotiations start, other countries will laugh at the idea that we have "strong and stable" leadership, let alone are insisting on the hard Brexit that May was demanding to appeal to the lunatic fringe. And May does not do well under pressure; she called the election out of a peculiar sort of desperate opportunism, and we've seen her increasingly degenerate into robotic performances that make little or no sense. Sooner or later - probably sooner - she'll break.
Labour are harder to gauge. If Corbyn really does have any political sense at all, he'll go on the strongest attack possible against May. If he does that, he may yet rally his MPs to his leadership if not all his ideologies. If, however, he reverts to his chronic problem of doing bugger all at key moments, pretty soon Labour are going to realise they're in bad shape. They made respectable but ultimately modest gains in the election - they still have a very long way to go to challenge the Conservatives by themselves. Once they realise that and find that they're sliding back into the doldrums, all the old animosities will re-surface and they'll split.
But who knows, a meteor may strike or the Queen might abdicate or something, such is the nature of politics.
I'm a colonist so I am not up to speed on all the issues.
ReplyDeleteBut while Corbyn has some troubling aspects, the DUP are much worse.
The DUP thing will probably not play well. Everybody hates them. That gives extremely powerful ammunition to the opposition if they have the sense to use it.
ReplyDeleteWhat I don't get is why May thinks the DUP is an appropriate partner for any coalition. From what I read they are pretty much anti-brexit given the amount of trade Northern Ireland has with Ireland proper. It's almost like the Tories forming a government with the SNP! On the SNP I have a suspicion the reason they lost so many seats to the Conservatives, which just seems so unnatural, is because there were a lot of Scots that voted for Brexit that are not so happy with Sturgeons' pro-Europe stance. Haven't heard anyone in the media actually say this, it's just a feeling I have.
ReplyDeleteSilaz Carbryck To be honest I was aware of the existence of the DUP only at an almost subconscious level until now. I'm hearing mixed reports on their Brexit stance, but I gather virtually all of their other policies are extreme hard right. Yet I'm also told that they can't vote on English laws because of EVEL. So that would make them almost useless as partners.
ReplyDeleteThe real reason is probably simple : absolutely no other party will do any kind of deal with the Tories at all.
On the SNP, it remains to be seen if Brexit or indyref2 (or both) were the main culprits. On the other hand they only recently swept to power, so it could be that previously safe seats are reverting back to their normal preferences.