People who score well on these kinds of numeracy tests are also four times more likely to seek help within the first hour of experiencing the symptoms of heart failure – and this decision, in turn, determined their prognosis afterwards. The Berlin Numeracy Test also seems to capture people’s understanding of different investment plans and their capacity to evaluate adverts and understand political polls.
It’s important to note that neither the Berlin Numeracy Test, nor any of these particular decision-making tasks, rely on highly specialised or advanced knowledge beyond what you should learn at a secondary (high) school. But the very basic understanding of risk and uncertainty apparently leads you to become more reflective about the information you consume, creating a more rational and informed worldview. In technical terms, it seems to increase your “metacognition” – your capacity to question your own reasoning and judgements.
The obvious question here is whether understanding statistics alters metacognition or if there's simply a correlation between metacognition and a capacity to understand statistics...
You might assume that the Berlin Numeracy Test simply measures intelligence, given that it relies on a basic command of numbers. But although the two are correlated, Cokely has shown that a capacity to understand risk turns out to be far better at predicting someone’s general decision-making abilities than typical IQ-style questions.
I took the test and was rewarded with gushing praise :
"Congratulations on completing your statistical and risk literacy test!
Your numeracy score is better than about 75-100% of all college educated individuals. Roughly, this means that out of every 100 people who take the test, you will do better than about 90% (90 people) of all other people. This is the highest score one can receive on this test.
Technically, relative to the general population, you are among the most statistically literate in the world.
Based on your score, you are not very likely to experience the extreme difficulty most people have when faced with common types of statistical thinking. However, you should still take care and may want to double check your calculations or seek additional advice when it comes to important decisions involving risk and statistics (e.g., some medical decisions, financial investment, taking consumer debt).
In our uncertain and complex world you are likely to find that your higher levels of risk and statistical literacy are very beneficial and important.
Indeed, your levels of numeracy reflect a skill level that very few people ever achieve… one that is the result of considerable practice.
As the saying goes: "Practice makes perfect.""
That's a nice way to start the day. Obligatory PoTC link : http://astrorhysy.blogspot.com/2015/11/sense-and-sensible-statistics.html
Mind you, I got told off yesterday for poo-poohing the risk of shark attacks. Apparently "8 in the last 10 years" counts as "many". I think the phrase, "oh don't bring your statistics into it" might have been uttered. Sigh.
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20180814-how-we-should-think-about-uncertainty
Sister blog of Physicists of the Caribbean in which I babble about non-astronomy stuff, because everyone needs a hobby
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Far easier than some probability and combinatorics puzzles I recall, but I do wish there was a page showing the correct estimates for STD/drought/etc. risk. I'm pretty sure my answers were close to correct, but I'm even more certain they weren't exactly on the nose.
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