Added a new section including the last update plus a little more. This one shows that it's possible to get something that looks a lot like a meritocracy - even a really extreme one - but actually is nothing of the sort : "...it’s more analogous to finding all the rich people and giving them some intensive training whilst also finding the poor people and making them watch Jeremy Kyle all day until their brains fall out. It may look like a meritocracy, but it clearly isn’t."
I think the end is in sight for this one. The only additional thing I'd like to try is to have the more talented agents move towards areas of greater event concentration. That would make for a reasonably complete examination of this two-parameter model. Then I'll try and publish it...
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1TD1PCW1IG2BlBQ27GPe5Nqi5phjg4qXwhpgEfJAgbBw/edit#heading=h.6ywyacchet0o
you can make it on luck without talent
ReplyDeletebut you can't make it on talent without luck
Talent VS. Luck ... Take a guy with an IQ of 80 and put him in a debate with a guy with an IQ of 140. Will luck help the 80?
ReplyDeleteTake a tight end weighing 280 against a guy 180. Luck is all the 180 guy has... but it ain't gonna help.
so, was it talent that gave one guy an IQ of 80 and the other an IQ of 180; what talent gives you 280 lbs? And little guys with luck often do win against bigger guys. And what is the debate on, who studied more or was coached better, and what strikes of lightning or mass murderer might not end the debate before it begins?
ReplyDeleteWell this is really about financial success in society rather than specific extreme cases. High IQ doesn't necessarily mean good communication skills, small size doesn't prevent ninja-level martial arts abilities. At the same time, no amount of skill can stop a bolt of lightning or a sudden heart attack. Extremes of luck and talent aren't really representative of the norms.
ReplyDeletemy point is talent has no chance against luck, because luck covers a much wider/deeper/longer range of possibilities
ReplyDeletealso, these so-called talents (IQ, size) are clearly no such thing, but the luck of the draw
(not to mention the huge boost the luck of being born to wealth gives)